Latest news with #Dharamraj Dhutia
Yahoo
04-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Indian rupee seen under pressure on US tariff worries, RBI policy in focus
By Dharamraj Dhutia and Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI (Reuters) -The rupee is likely to stay under pressure this week as concerns over steep U.S. tariffs on Indian exports linger, while the Reserve Bank of India's upcoming policy decision also looms large over the currency and government bonds. The rupee closed at 87.54 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, down 1.2% for the week, pressured by persistent foreign portfolio outflows and a 25% levy on Indian exports. While the local unit is hovering near its weakest level since February, fresh tariff announcements on dozens of U.S. trading partners also pushed other Asian currencies to multi-month lows. The dollar index, meanwhile, posted its best weekly gain since 2022 as expectations of a U.S. rate cut in September faded. The odds of a reduction in September rose to 80% after data released on Friday showed that the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Meanwhile, the maturity of a $5 billion dollar-rupee buy/sell swap conducted by the RBI earlier this year will be in focus on Monday. "It would be prudent to break the swap into delivery and rollover. The rupee has probably seen its worst for this quarter and some support will bring it to a desirable level, while not disturbing liquidity, said Alok Singh, group head of treasury at CSB Bank. Traders expect the rupee to trade between 87.00 and 87.80 this week and reckon that the central bank may continue to intervene to limit excessive volatility. Meanwhile, India's 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 bond yield, settled at 6.3680% last week, up 2 basis points (bps). Traders anticipate the yield will remain in the 6.33%-6.38% band till the RBI's policy decision on Wednesday. The range could be tested on either side, depending on policymakers' decision and guidance. Although some market participants expect a rate cut, a majority of economists polled by Reuters believe RBI will hold rates steady this time. "While it is a close call, our bias remains for a 25 bps rate cut at the August meeting," Citi said. A drop in India's retail inflation to a more-than-six-year low in June, coupled with expectations that it may slip to a record low in July, have heightened hopes of a rate cut. However, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra last month said that the bar for further easing is now higher than it would have been if the stance was still "accommodative". The central bank slashed rates by a steeper-than-expected 50 bps in June and shifted its policy stance to "neutral" from "accommodative". "As the RBI awaits the impact of the large easing it has already done, we believe it will stay put on repo rate changes on 6 August," HSBC said in a note. Key Factors: India ** July HSBC services PMI and composite PMI - August 5, Tuesday (10:30 a.m.) ** Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision - August 6, Wednesday (10:00 a.m.)(Reuters poll - no change) U.S. ** June factory orders - August 4, Monday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** June international trade - August 5, Tuesday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** July S&P Global composite PMI final - August 5, Tuesday (7:15 p.m. IST) ** July S&P Global services PMI final - August 5, Tuesday (7:15 p.m. IST) ** July ISM non-manufacturing PMI - August 5, Tuesday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** Initial weekly jobless claims for week to July 28 - August 7, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST)
Yahoo
04-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Indian rupee seen under pressure on US tariff worries, RBI policy in focus
By Dharamraj Dhutia and Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI (Reuters) -The rupee is likely to stay under pressure this week as concerns over steep U.S. tariffs on Indian exports linger, while the Reserve Bank of India's upcoming policy decision also looms large over the currency and government bonds. The rupee closed at 87.54 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, down 1.2% for the week, pressured by persistent foreign portfolio outflows and a 25% levy on Indian exports. While the local unit is hovering near its weakest level since February, fresh tariff announcements on dozens of U.S. trading partners also pushed other Asian currencies to multi-month lows. The dollar index, meanwhile, posted its best weekly gain since 2022 as expectations of a U.S. rate cut in September faded. The odds of a reduction in September rose to 80% after data released on Friday showed that the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Meanwhile, the maturity of a $5 billion dollar-rupee buy/sell swap conducted by the RBI earlier this year will be in focus on Monday. "It would be prudent to break the swap into delivery and rollover. The rupee has probably seen its worst for this quarter and some support will bring it to a desirable level, while not disturbing liquidity, said Alok Singh, group head of treasury at CSB Bank. Traders expect the rupee to trade between 87.00 and 87.80 this week and reckon that the central bank may continue to intervene to limit excessive volatility. Meanwhile, India's 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 bond yield, settled at 6.3680% last week, up 2 basis points (bps). Traders anticipate the yield will remain in the 6.33%-6.38% band till the RBI's policy decision on Wednesday. The range could be tested on either side, depending on policymakers' decision and guidance. Although some market participants expect a rate cut, a majority of economists polled by Reuters believe RBI will hold rates steady this time. "While it is a close call, our bias remains for a 25 bps rate cut at the August meeting," Citi said. A drop in India's retail inflation to a more-than-six-year low in June, coupled with expectations that it may slip to a record low in July, have heightened hopes of a rate cut. However, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra last month said that the bar for further easing is now higher than it would have been if the stance was still "accommodative". The central bank slashed rates by a steeper-than-expected 50 bps in June and shifted its policy stance to "neutral" from "accommodative". "As the RBI awaits the impact of the large easing it has already done, we believe it will stay put on repo rate changes on 6 August," HSBC said in a note. Key Factors: India ** July HSBC services PMI and composite PMI - August 5, Tuesday (10:30 a.m.) ** Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision - August 6, Wednesday (10:00 a.m.)(Reuters poll - no change) U.S. ** June factory orders - August 4, Monday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** June international trade - August 5, Tuesday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** July S&P Global composite PMI final - August 5, Tuesday (7:15 p.m. IST) ** July S&P Global services PMI final - August 5, Tuesday (7:15 p.m. IST) ** July ISM non-manufacturing PMI - August 5, Tuesday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** Initial weekly jobless claims for week to July 28 - August 7, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
22-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Resurgence of India rate-cut wagers revives foreign investor interest in bonds
By Dharamraj Dhutia MUMBAI (Reuters) -Foreign appetite for Indian government bonds is back, with inflows picking up steadily over the last month, as investors gauge fresh expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India as early as August. The RBI cut rates by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points in June and changed the stance to "neutral", prompting investors to bet on a prolonged pause. But a sharp drop in June retail inflation has some investors reassessing the likelihood of another rate cut. The RBI could implement a modest 25 basis point cut in August if inflation remains subdued and growth concerns persist, said Singapore-based Manish Bhargava, CEO of Straits Investment Management, adding that bond yields are attractive at current levels. Over the last one month, foreign investors have net bought 129 billion rupees ($1.5 billion) of Indian bonds linked to global indexes after selling more than 330 billion rupees in the first two-and-a-half months of the financial year that started on April 1, clearing house data showed. Analysts said concerns on the growth front are also likely to prompt the central bank to lower rates further. With recent high-frequency data disappointing and indicating the possibility of a further slowdown in growth, "there is potential for more support from the RBI further down the line," said London-based Giulia Pellegrini, lead portfolio manager, emerging market debt at AllianzGI. India's overall economic fundamentals remain solid, keeping the country on investors' radar, she said. A wider gap between interest rates in India and the U.S. would add to the appeal of Indian debt, investors said. That's why a Federal Reserve rate cut could act as a positive catalyst for Indian bonds, as they have historically helped local currency debt markets, said Nigel Foo, Singapore-based head of Asian fixed income at First Sentier Investors. However, current Indian bond yields are lower than where they were in the past at similar policy rate levels, and so are relatively unattractive, he added. The 10-year U.S. yield was around 4.35%, with the Fed expected to cut rates by at least 50 bps in 2025. The Indian 10-year benchmark bond yield was at 6.30%. "India's local debt story remains very compelling on both FX and rates," said Jean‑Charles Sambor, head of emerging markets debt at TT International Asset Management in London, who expects bond yields to decline through this year and next, and finds the middle of the yield curve attractive. ($1 = 86.2470 Indian rupees)
